I was stunned this morning to awake to the news that President Trump had announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. I believe my first thought on the subject was “WHAT?!?!”
Israel has agreed to the ceasefire. Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that all the objectives of Operation Rising Lion had been achieved or exceeded. So, you know, there is no problem stopping our attacks on Iran.
I think that justifies another “WHAT?!?!” — First, we have no way of knowing just how much Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been set back. Second, Iran still has plenty of missiles to shoot at Israel, and already violated the ceasefire by firing one. Seems pretty crazy.
That said, here are my thoughts going forward:
1) I trust Bibi. He always agrees to whatever ceasefire proposal the Americans present. Either he is a total wimp, or he understands that if he is patient the other side will blow up the deal, or that Israel will stand firm on some principle or another and get the other side blamed for it. I don’t know if Bibi is brilliant or a wimp, but since October 7 he has always been right in this.
2) I trust Trump. He does not do everything that I want him to do for Israel, and he is not Bibi’s patsy, as his detractors on the right and left say. But he usually has Israel’s interests in mind to a certain extent, and many of his larger goals are in Israel’s interests too. Like not letting Iran get the bomb. In this case, I am sure that Trump acted for his own reasons, but some of those reasons align with Israel’s needs.
3) I think this ceasefire was a direct result of Trump’s ordering the US attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump is transactional, and if he does you a favor, he expects a bigger favor in return. We are now paying the piper.
4) I was actually a bit disappointed when the Americans bombed Fordow et al. Israel couldn’t destroy the Fordow nuclear facility with bunker busting bombs that we don’t have and don’t have a way to deliver, but come on, this is Israel. The IDF is used to doing the “impossible” and it is very likely an Israeli plan to destroy Fordow existed. We could have shown the world that we could handle this task as well. Now, instead of our detractors quietly lamenting, again, that Israel appears unstoppable, they will say out loud that Israel “needed” the US to save the day, that the Jews control the White House, that Israel has endangered America, etc.
Those were my thoughts then. But now that a few days have passed and Trump has demanded payment, I think the real problem is clearer: It seems that Israel has yet again surrendered some of its independence by requesting America’s help and receiving it. Was it worth it?