Prediction Confirmed

One month ago, before anyone knew much about Governor Palin, I made some wild predictions, including the outcome of last night's debate:

Palin will defeat Biden in the Vice President debates in terms of popular opinion, but the mainstream media will declare Biden the winner.

This was written before she had given her convention speech.

Over the next few days, the outcome will become more clear, but there are several key indications that it was a split decision between the public and the mainstream media:

Popular opinion went to Palin:

The four indicators I would use here are: Frank Luntz's undecided focus group, Drudge Report insta-poll and Intrade Market odds.

Luntz focus group of undecideds
The Luntz polling organization gathers a reasonable sample of undecided voters for every debate and polls them immediately afterward. Palin won this group 20-4. This is unprecedented in their experience.

Drudge Report insta-poll
After 416,000 votes cast, Palin has a knockout lead of 70%-28%. It is fair to argue that Drudge's readership skews right, but compared to previous Drudge polls, this was extraordinary.

Intrade Market odds
This is the best single number to see what the general public thinks in terms of who will win the election at any given moment. At the start of yesterday's debate, the odds were heavily in Obama's favor: approximately 69:31 in favor of Obama. In the next 12 hours, the odds dropped sharply, down to 65:35. In the morning trading, Obama has gained some ground, but it is possible that this is due to the mainstream media morning-after effect.


Media pundits called it for Biden:

Although many analysts said that Palin exceeded expectations, that is nothing like saying she won the debate. She had been so pilloried since the Gibson and Couric interviews, this was not much of a compliment. There is no question that a comprehensive summary of MSM scores would show a large margin of victory for Biden.

CNN's report card, for example, gives Biden 3 A's and 2 B's, while Palin received 2 A's, 2 B's and a C.

Here is a roundup of mainstream media analysis, which gives the edge to Biden.

Why do these predictions matter? Because political analysis is like science. Theories that cannot explain unknown data are not worth much. In politics, the unknown data are future events. Many of them are unknowable, but a great deal are predictable from valid hypotheses.

Among the many predictions I made about Governor Sarah Palin before her convention speech was this highly contrarian one:

Palin May be Israel's Best Friend Ever

A close reading of the Gibson interview shows that she has made what may be the strongest pro-Israel statements ever by a potential American leader:

GIBSON: Let me turn to Iran. Do you consider a nuclear Iran to be an existential threat to Israel?

PALIN: I believe that under the leadership of Ahmadinejad, nuclear weapons in the hands of his government are extremely dangerous to everyone on this globe, yes.

Here, Palin expresses the entire point of this blog--that the war against Israel is really a part of the war on the free world.

GIBSON: So what should we do about a nuclear Iran? John McCain said the only thing worse than a war with Iran would be a nuclear Iran. John Abizaid said we may have to live with a nuclear Iran. Who's right?

Gibson didn't mention that Joe Biden reportedly told Israeli leaders that they would have to live with a nuclear Iran.

PALIN: No, no. I agree with John McCain that nuclear weapons in the hands of those who would seek to destroy our allies, in this case, we're talking about Israel, we're talking about Ahmadinejad's comment about Israel being the "stinking corpse, should be wiped off the face of the earth," that's atrocious. That's unacceptable.

Here Palin is presenting the best quote she can in order to get listeners to side with Israel against those who hate her.

GIBSON: So what do you do about a nuclear Iran?

PALIN: We have got to make sure that these weapons of mass destruction, that nuclear weapons are not given to those hands of Ahmadinejad, not that he would use them, but that he would allow terrorists to be able to use them. So we have got to put the pressure on Iran and we have got to count on our allies to help us, diplomatic pressure.

GIBSON: But, Governor, we've threatened greater sanctions against Iran for a long time. It hasn't done any good. It hasn't stemmed their nuclear program.

PALIN: We need to pursue those and we need to implement those. We cannot back off. We cannot just concede that, oh, gee, maybe they're going to have nuclear weapons, what can we do about it. No way, not Americans. We do not have to stand for that.

GIBSON: What if Israel decided it felt threatened and needed to take out the Iranian nuclear facilities?

PALIN: Well, first, we are friends with Israel and I don't think that we should second guess the measures that Israel has to take to defend themselves and for their security.

GIBSON: So if we wouldn't second guess it and they decided they needed to do it because Iran was an existential threat, we would cooperative or agree with that.

PALIN: I don't think we can second guess what Israel has to do to secure its nation.

GIBSON: So if it felt necessary, if it felt the need to defend itself by taking out Iranian nuclear facilities, that would be all right.

PALIN: We cannot second guess the steps that Israel has to take to defend itself.

Over and over, Palin offers Israel carte blanche in doing what it needs to do to defend itself and for its security. If she is serious, this overturns much of current American policy in terms of pressuring Israel to dismantle checkpoints and to make "goodwill gesture" releases of jihadist prisoners. All of these undermine Israel's security. Do not be distracted by the fact that she said this in response to questions about a nuclear Iran. Her answers are categorical principles, not specific.

More importantly, this logically overturns the long-standing American policies of pressuring Israel to relinquish land for peace, and to stop settlement activity. Israel has historically argued that this territory have a vital security role, a contention that Palin should logically not second-guess.

Furthermore, Palin drew about as strong a line as a national politician has ever made in opposing the Global Jihad:

SARAH PALIN: In order to stop Islamic extremists, those terrorists who would seek to destroy America and our allies, we must do whatever it takes, and we must not blink, Charlie, in making those tough decisions of where we go and even who we target.

Why read IRIS? At the time many reporters were asking Republican delegates if they favored the "Eagelton option" (rescinding the Palin nomination as was done in 1972), IRIS accurately predicted a "wildly successful" speech. IRIS also correctly predicted that "the conservative movement will respond to her more enthusiastically than any politician since Reagan."

Most importantly, while news sources such as the Jerusalem Post are still publishing misinformation about Palin on Jewish/Israeli themes (such as the canard that she supported Pat Buchanan), IRIS alone has connected the dots that suggest that she is an ultra-Zionist.

Stay tuned for the results on the other dramatic predictions in that post.

For anyone who missed the speech, it is a must-see:

Exactly as predicted an hour before the surprise news conference, Ehud Olmert has announced the inevitable. He will not run in the Kadima primaries that he is forecast to lose anyway. This will enable him to procrastinate and remain Prime Minister for the longest amount of time feasible (conceivably, until March 2009).

Ironically, he is preening that he is doing this for the good of the country, even though he fought bitterly against the scheduling of the Kadima primary that has become the catalyst for his exit.

The beginning of Olmert's announcement was a summary of his accomplishments as Prime Minister, including, ironically, taking credit for the peaceful situation in the north of the country. Hezbollah has seized de facto control of Lebanon, and Olmert's requested UN "disarmament force" has resulted in an inventory of several times the pre-war missile stockpile aimed at Israel.

PM announces he will resign after Kadima elects new leader

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert held a special press conference on Wednesday at 8 p.m. where he announced he will not run in the Kadima primary scheduled to take place in September.

Olmert said he would resign from office upon selection of a successor, and would allow his successor to attempt to form a coalition.

The premier lashed out at his political adversaries without naming any of them - either from Kadima or other parties - personally.

Olmert opened his speech by expressing his pride to be a citizen of Israel: "As a citizen in a democracy I have always believed that when a person is elected prime minister in Israel, even those who opposed him in the ballot want him to succeed....

The winner in the Kadima primary will have until October 26 to submit his new government for approval by President Shimon Peres.

In case the elected leader fails, the president customarily grants another 90 days to form a government; after the 90 days are through, in case no coalition is formed, a general election is scheduled, thus potentially allowing Olmert to remain in power until March 2009.

After the primary Olmert will remain in office as prime minister of a transitional government, until his successor in Kadima manages to forge a new coalition or until general elections are held.

Four days ago, other bloggers called Shimon Peres' comment that there was no chance for peace with the Palestinians a "flying pig moment." My prediction was:

Don't put too much stock in this 'flying pigs' moment. Shimon Peres will revert back to form after a good night's rest

Here's the inevitable retraction:

Peres denies said no chance of peace with Palestinians

President Mahmoud Abbas received on Sunday a telephone call from Israeli President Shimon Peres.

Israeli President denied what some of the media reported on his tongue, especially with regard to President Abbas.

Peres also expressed his regret in this regard, confirmed that he was committed to the peace process and he has not changed his position on this matter.

One month ago, on the day Israel approved the delivery of a Jordanian weapons shipment to the Palestinian Authority (including two million bullets), I wrote:

How many Jews (and Arabs) has Olmert just consigned to be murdered?

Today there is documentation of the first murder from that weapons cache:

The terrorists who killed Ido Zoldan near Kedumim in the West Bank last month used weapons the PA received from Jordan with Israel's approval, a government official said Monday.

The three members of the terrorist cell were members of the PA security forces.

This prophetic Dry Bones cartoon was used to illustrate that entry:

Two years ago, I predicted the obvious regarding the consequences of the overwhelming leftist bias in mainstream news coverage:

My prediction is that the main result will be an acceleration of the mainstream media's erosion of credibility and therefore, its audience.

Here is more confirmation from today's news:

The Audit Bureau of Circulations released circulation numbers for more than 700 daily newspapers this morning for the six-month period ending September 2007. Of the top 25 papers in daily circulation (see chart, separate story), only four showed gains.

For The New York Times, daily circulation fell 4.51% to 1,037,828 and Sunday plunged 7.59% to 1,500,394, at least partly due to a price increase.

Daily circulation at The Washington Post was down 3.2% to 635,087 and Sunday was down 3.9% to 894,428.

Daily circulation at The Boston Globe tumbled 6.6% to 360,695 and Sunday fell about the same, 6.5% to 548,906.

What is important to note is that normal businesses have a 'bad year' if they do not continually grow by 5-6% annually. This often brings immediate management consequences. In the case of newspapers, however, the solution is quite obvious (stop the incessant propaganda), but leftists apparently have their hearts set on going down with the ship.

June 18: Defense Minister Ehud Barak vowed a full-scale invasion of Gaza to "crush Hamas"

September 12: Ehud Barak: "We'll announce that every Kassam is an hour of blackout. That way, whoever launches the Kassam knows he's cutting the power."

October 26: Israel does not plan to cut the power supply in response to each rocket fired at Israel, but will gradually reduce Gaza's dependency on Israel for electricity. Gaza's population uses about 200 megawatts of electricity, of which 120 are provided directly from Israel, 17 are from Egypt, and 65 are produced locally....The first sanctions will be implemented in the coming days, with electricity supply being disrupted during the evening hours for periods between 15 minutes to an hour each time.

Of course, on June 18, IRIS was nearly alone in analyzing that Ehud Barak's bluster was simply "talk tough to appease the locals" (New Defense Minister Barak Dusts off 'Really Really Hard' Doctrine). All that will occur is the gradual increase of local and Egyptian-supplied power, plus many millions of Western taxpayer dollars for electricity projects that will be stolen in Palestinian graft.

Two days before Shimon Peres became President of Israel, I predicted:

Releasing terrorist murderers will be easier in the future now that Shimon Peres has been made President by Olmert and company. Leftists don't need to tone down their true desires when they no longer face reelection. See, for example: Jimmy Carter, Avraham Burg and Ramsey Clark.

Yesterday Shimon Peres has done just that: commuted the sentences of five Arab terrorist murderers of a random fifteen year-old. No decision could be more politically unpopular in Israel, which has a large number of Arabs ready to seize any opportunity to murder a Jew for jihad. But he doesn't have to worry about that any more, because he is now completely unaccountable to the electorate. The Presidency of Israel has now joined the Supreme Court as another branch of government now functioning to subvert the power of the Israeli people (see here for a must-read published today on the Supreme Court's constitutional coup). Kadima and Labor, who knew exactly why they gave Peres the pardon power, can feign ignorance:

President Shimon Peres defended his decision Wednesday to cut short the life sentences of the five murderers of teenager Danny Katz, telling critics - including Katz's family - that his decision was based entirely on legal considerations. A statement from Beit Hanassi read: "The president understands the pain of the Katz family, whose son Danny was murdered by evildoers. In accordance with the procedure in effect since the day the country was established, the president is responsible for determining the commutation of a life sentence, and that is after the committee for reviewing life sentences, headed by a judge, submits its detailed recommendations to the Justice Ministry."

Those judges are also appointed by the Leftist oligopoly that rules Israel. Of course, those 'detailed recommendations' will not be available for the public to see.

Peres's comments were in response to claims that his decision was based on political concerns, in an attempt to bring Israeli Arabs into the Kadima-Labor coalition.

Earlier Wednesday, Katz's mother blasted the president's decision and bemoaned the lack of importance awarded to life sentences in the state of Israel.

"The second Peres becomes president, he rushes to release murderers - five murderers, savages, who killed an innocent boy outside his home. We're getting calls from all over the country. They're all saying, 'Better [former president Moshe] Katsav than someone who frees murderers,'" Mira Katz said.

Katz's brother also took to the airwaves to slam the decision, saying that they had heard as far back as two months ago that at least one Arab MK was advocating the fives' release.

Why, exactly, would a Knesset member desire the release of terrorists? Why would his constituency want such a thing?

Danny Katz was 15 in 1983 when he left his Denya neighborhood house in Haifa and never returned. His body was discovered in a cave not far from Sakhnin four days after his disappearance. The five suspects were first indicted in Haifa District Court in 1984 and charged with premeditated murder, conspiracy to commit a crime and kidnapping with intent to murder.

In October 1985, all five - Ahmad Kozli, Samir Hanama, Fathi Guama, Ali Gnaim and Ataf Sabihi were convicted of all the charges against them and sentenced to life plus 27 years in prison each. In the nineties, the five repeatedly requested a retrial, claiming that their confessions were made under physical and psychological pressure.

In 1999, then-Supreme Court president Aharon Barak granted the five the long-awaited retrial, but that resulted in a verdict, handed down in 2002, which upheld their previous conviction.

There is one possibly positive development that can come from this: non-Leftist parties should make adoption of the death penalty for terrorist murderers a campaign issue. It would be wildly popular, particularly given the added reason that death is the only legal impediment to release by President Peres.

See also: Suspicion: Peres Paid for Arab Vote with Leniency to Arab Killers

This is exactly as I predicted when I called the "international disarmament force" an obvious fraud from the moment it was proposed by Israel's bankrupt leadership:

Illegal arms traffic into Lebanon across the Syrian border, mainly to Hezbollah fighters, is reported to be taking place on a regular basis, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Monday. In a report to the U.N. Security Council, Ban said news of arms shipments, including "detailed and substantial" reports from Israel, and other nations, showed the need for a team he was sending to propose ways of monitoring of the border.

"Such transfers are alleged to be taking place on a regular basis," Ban wrote. "I am deeply worried that the political crisis in Lebanon may be deepened and exacerbated" by arms smuggling. He also said that there was a growing threat from armed "extremist Islamist groups" who have found safe haven in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon.

Not to worry, though. I'm sure Israel's leaders are preparing for the next Lebanon war as diligently as they did prior to the previous one.

Israel paid $100 million to Abbas to "fight Hamas." Guess where the money went?

I have been comparing the Israeli leadership to the lovable chowderheaded Wise Men of Chelm, but I now think this is unfair.

To the Chelmites.

Israeli Diplomat: "Abu Mazen Lied to Us Thrice"

Abu Mazen's third lie was revealed in the Maariv newspaper yesterday (Thursday). The paper reported that tax monies Israel handed over to Abbas, based on a clear understanding that they would not reach the Hamas government, in fact made their way to Hamas.

Abbas, viewed as a "moderate" by the United States and the international community, "is not trustworthy," the Israeli diplomat concluded.

However, when he meets with Olmert this Sunday, PA sources say he plans to ask the Israeli leader not to torpedo the PA unity government's activities - even though it was conceived in contrast with Abu Mazen's promise to Israel. He also intends to request of Olmert not to pressure the international community to continue its economic siege on the PA - despite the fact that previous monies given to PA were given to Hamas.

Abbas reportedly plans to say that if Olmert does not come through on the above requests, the ceasefire in Gaza will be in jeopardy. Israeli sources say the ceasefire is already all but non-existent, and that in any event, Hamas is massively building up its arms arsenal for a confrontation with Israel.

Clearly, this Israeli official is not an IRIS reader, or he could have read a year ago how Israel would fund Hamas. He could have also read that the universally reported "Hamas-Fatah Civil War" would probably be revealed as a scam.

Update: Hamas confirms the news.

That impending Palestinian civil war that was ubiquitously reported certainly seems to have been resolved quite easily in the end. We'll never know for sure, but could it be that it was all a scam as IRIS was alone in predicting?

I wonder if Abbas will return the $100 million to Israel, plus the far greater amount from the US taken on the pretense of fighting Hamas?

National Unity Talks Reach Agreement to Fulfill Five Goals, Including Formation of a United Resistance

Two years ago, I warned that the impending election of Kadima would exacerbate Israel's second-largest problem--the nefarious control of the economy by the small group of "branja" families. They exploit their oligopolistic position to make rules to further consolidate their control.

Upon their election, I predicted:

When Kadima says "trust us" and doesn't reveal any policies, it means they are the chosen favorites of the 5 Families who will do their bidding. Israel is heading for long-term disaster by placing these foxes, along with Peretz's Labor, in the henhouse rules' committee.

Now it appears that 86% of Israelis agree that the super-wealthy are gaining control of the government. Although this poll may appear to express attitudes of simple class warfare (which I generally oppose), I believe it represents some understanding of the "brancha" problem. Unfortunately, the 5 Families essentially control Israel's news media so it is difficult for the public to identify the genuine culprit.

Almost one year ago, I correctly predicted that Olmert's announced strategy of financially isolating the Palestinian Authority after the Hamas landslide victory was a lie. Not only that, but Israel itself would continue to pay Hamas, after a delay while Israeli public opinion got over the shock of Hamas' victory. Hamas, as everyone knows, is committed to the genocide of Jews and all infidels.

I believe I was the only commentator who forecasted this:

Money for the Palestinian Authority is still being placed in escrow, meaning that the funds are being paid by Israel, not available to Israel in the future, and are legally intended for use by the Palestinian Authority. If a company pays money into a retirement fund for a worker for access at a future time, that is still considered an employee asset. There are many scenarios in which the Palestinians may access the funds. Here are some: "humanitarian" purposes, Israeli court order, international court order, American pressure and "carrots" for various insincere public expressions in English.

The details are exactly as predicted:

Israel to Release Frozen Tax Funds to PA

....The money, according to the official, is meant to go for "humanitarian purposes"

Another reason listed is that this will "strengthen Abbas against Hamas." This despite the fact that only last week Abbas called for Palestinians to shoot Israelis.

Why do I point out my correct predictions? Because I am trying to build credibility for my next forecast: massive, simultaneous nuclear strikes on the West unlike we wake up and defend ourselves against the jihad. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction does not work against those who welcome death.

God forbid.